SUSTAINABILITY SPOTLIGHT

3 Commercial HVAC Trends To Watch In 2026

Facility leaders must adapt to a rapidly evolving landscape, as HVAC decisions now shape both a building’s efficiency and the day-to-day experience of its occupants.

By Matt Bynum

July 2026

As facility leaders navigate another year of shifting regulatory requirements, rising expectations for building performance, and increasing pressure to operate more efficiently, HVAC strategy continues to play a central role. Across the commercial building sector, facility managers and owners are actively evaluating how to modernize their systems to meet evolving performance standards.

Three key issues are shaping commercial HVAC in 2026, each with direct implications for facility operations, capital planning, and long-term sustainability:

These trends underscore a simple reality: facilities that plan ahead will be best positioned to improve occupant comfort, reduce carbon impact, and manage operational risk. Here’s what leaders in facility management should be watching for this year.

HVAC manufacturers are moving away from producing or importing commercial variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems that use R-410A and are transitioning to low-GWP alternatives such as R-32. With a GWP of 675 — compared to R-410A’s 2,088 — R-32 significantly reduces environmental impact while maintaining high efficiency. This transition, driven by regulatory requirements and broader efficiency goals, will shape equipment selection, service planning, training, and budgeting for years to come. 

The refrigerant phase-down is one of the key issues facility leaders must closely monitor.

The considerations for facility managers are both practical and strategic. System replacements will require earlier and more deliberate planning, especially in buildings still operating aging R-410A equipment.

As new refrigerants enter the market, service teams will need updated guidance to safely and effectively handle mildly flammable refrigerants. Procurement decisions must now account for regulatory compliance as well as the long-term performance and environmental impact of chosen systems. 

Facility managers should examine how different manufacturers have used this transition as an opportunity to improve serviceability, reliability, and overall comfort in their low-GWP solutions. Newer, well-designed VRF systems may offer higher integrated energy efficiency ratio (IEER) ratings and improved heating coefficient of performance (COP) scores. Selecting these advanced systems may lead to energy savings and help reduce operational costs for building owners.

Expectations for comfort in commercial environments have evolved dramatically. Tenants, employees, students, guests, and patients increasingly expect individualized comfort control, especially as buildings adapt to changing occupancy patterns and heightened wellness priorities. This emphasis on personalized comfort is enabled by VRF and Hybrid VRF technologies that offer precise temperature control, quiet operation, and improved occupant satisfaction.

For facility leaders, this shift requires rethinking how comfort is delivered throughout a building. Zoned HVAC systems reduce energy waste by conditioning only the areas in use while tailoring comfort to the needs of different occupants.

A real-world example illustrates the impact. Weber State University in Ogden, Utah, historically relied on chilled water for cooling and steam for heating. Many campus buildings have since been upgraded to water-source VRF and Hybrid VRF systems—including the six-level SkySuites building, home to athletics offices, a press box, 26 suites, 150 club seats, and a student athlete study area. Temperature control in the SkySuites had long been difficult, but Hybrid VRF’s zoning capabilities provided individual thermostats in each space, allowing occupants to easily adjust heating or cooling to their preferred comfort level.

Facilities striving to retain tenants or enhance occupant experience can benefit from this same alignment of comfort with demand. When integrated with building management operations, these advanced systems also give facility teams deeper operational visibility, helping them make more informed decisions about maintenance, energy use, and overall system performance.

New heat pump technologies continue to reshape the built environment, including the growth of electric hydronic systems powered by air-source technology. Hydronic heat pump systems increasingly compete with or outperform conventional boilers for both space heating and domestic hot water (DHW) production.

This trend carries substantial implications for facility executives planning long-term efficiency and resilience strategies. All-electric systems can support lower operational costs and reduced reliance on fossil fuels depending on system design and application.

Technological advancements have also expanded the applicability of electric hydronic solutions across a wider range of climates and building types, including multifamily housing, hospitality, education, and senior living. In 2026, more sectors are expected to explore all-electric, three-phase options for both retrofit projects and new installations. Facility managers should stay close to their distributors and solution providers to understand the newest technologies entering the market.

One example is the Mitsubishi Electric ecodan®Pro CAHV heat pump water heater—a modular, air-source system using low-GWP R-454C refrigerant and capable of producing water temperatures up to 165° F (74° C). Its flexibility makes it well suited for a wide range of commercial applications, further supporting the industry’s shift toward efficient, all-electric hydronic solutions.

Across the industry, the move to low-GWP refrigerants, rising expectations for personalized comfort, and growing adoption of electric hydronic systems all point toward smarter, cleaner, and more adaptable building strategies. Facility leaders can begin by assessing their current refrigerant inventory to understand which systems will be affected by regulatory changes and to plan upgrades accordingly.

As occupant expectations continue to rise, evaluating comfort-focused HVAC improvements—such as zoned VRF and Hybrid VRF systems—will be increasingly important. Facilities exploring all-electric system strategies can take a phased approach, integrating electric hydronic systems over time as part of a broader efficiency-focused plan.

Throughout this process, clear and compliant communication is essential. Whether working with maintenance teams, contractors, or internal leadership, facility managers should rely on verifiable facts and substantiated claims to guide decisions.

The role of the facility manager has never been more strategic. Today, HVAC decisions shape both a building’s efficiency and the day-to-day experience of the people inside it.